Opinion / Strategy

Bad Idea: Conflating Chinese Military Modernization Goals with a Timeline for Compelling Taiwan

Leaders in Washington and allied capitals must not allow their military and diplomatic plans for the Indo-Pacific region to be colored by misinformation about China’s goals. There are a bevy of factors that could lead China to make a move against Taiwan at any time. Assuming that PLA capabilities are the sole variable in Beijing’s calculus would be a costly and dangerous mistake.

Opinion / Acquisition

Bad Idea: Investing for the New Cold War and Forgetting the “Boiling Peace”

The release of the next National Defense Strategy, expected in early 2022, will address the continued importance of China as a “pacing threat” even as it recognizes the “increasingly complicated and complex security landscape.” As the renewed potential for great power conflict drives strategy and plans, some have dubbed this a “new Cold War.” Letting this planning construct drive DoD’s investment program without paying attention to other kinds of potential contingencies is a bad idea.