Data / Acquisition, Budget, Forces, Strategy
The Defense Futures Simulator
The Defense Futures Simulator (DFS) is an interactive online tool designed to empower scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to create and analyze defense strategies and budgets. DFS allows users to quickly iterate and explore alternative approaches, evaluating their impact on the budget and military force structure in real-time. DFS is freely available to the public, allowing anyone to make an account and start creating scenarios.
Background
In 2020, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), and War on the Rocks (WOTR) collaborated to create the original Defense Futures Simulator—a publicly accessible tool for strategy and budget analysis. In 2024, CSIS partnered with AEI and Spear AI to launch a significantly enhanced version of DFS.
The updated DFS includes advanced features such as user account creation, scenario saving, and scenario sharing. Built-in reporting tools summarize how strategic decisions impact force structure and budget allocations, enabling easy comparison across different scenarios. Additionally, DFS introduces an innovative scoring algorithm that quantifies shifts in strategic priorities based on user decisions and an Intelligent Assistant to help users identify budget choices aligned with their strategic objectives.
Data Sources
A “baseline” in DFS is the projected budget and strategy for a specific military (e.g., US, UK, PRC) over a defined period. For example, the PB25 baseline aligns with the US defense budget request for fiscal year 2025 and its subsequent five-year projection. Baseline data includes a range of items users can adjust from the current plan, including changes to platforms (e.g., aircraft, ships), development programs (e.g., next generation weapons), or military force units (e.g., Army brigades). Items not included in the baseline data due to classification or other data limitations are assumed to remain unchanged. DFS also includes “new start” items not in the current plan, provided realistic cost and schedule estimates are available.
A “scenario” is the set of changes a user makes relative to the baseline. For instance, a scenario based on the PB25 baseline might increase the procurement of advanced aircraft, retire aging ships, or initiate new programs that are not currently planned. Users can create multiple scenarios for a single baseline, saving them privately within their accounts or opting to share them with other users.
Budget and Force Structure Calculations
At the heart of DFS is the model that calculates and aggregates the budget and force structure impacts of scenario decisions. The model includes realistic constraints on how much and how fast a scenario can deviate from the baseline to account for industrial base capacity and other practical limitations. DFS considers both the direct and indirect costs of changes, including procurement, research and development, operations, sustainment, and personnel expenses. It also tracks critical force metrics, such as total Air Force aircraft numbers or Navy ship count and tonnage. The tool also supports detailed metric analysis, like the total vertical launch system (VLS) cells and torpedo tubes within the Navy fleet. Where the data is available, there is no limit to the force metrics DFS can track.
Intelligent Assistant and Scenario Scoring
The DFS Intelligent Assistant connects strategic priorities to budget decisions by analyzing user preferences and recommending corresponding choices in a scenario. Rather than manually navigating through hundreds of items, users can leverage the Intelligent Assistant to quickly identify budget choices consistent with their strategic priorities. Conversely, the scoring algorithm calculates the implied shift in strategic priorities based on the selections a user makes in a scenario.
Users can complete challenge quizzes in DFS to improve the accuracy of the Intelligent Assistant and scoring algorithm. These quizzes allow users to earn “challenge coins,” unlocking additional tool features and refining the tool’s recommendations based on their personal strategic preferences. As more users complete challenge quizzes, the system improves its understanding of the complex interrelationships between strategic priorities and budget choices.
Analysis and Reporting Tools
Users can generate a variety of scenario reports for additional analysis. Users can track how a scenario impacts overall force metrics and the allocation of funding among the military services. They can assess the political sensitivity of budget choices through a unique “chili pepper” rating system that estimates the overall political risk associated with a set of decisions. It also includes a cross-scenario comparison tool, which visually illustrates the similarities and differences between scenarios—much like comparing DNA profiles—and quantifies the degree of commonality between them. All reports include an export function to PDF and Excel to facilitate external analysis.
Elevate Your Analysis
By integrating advanced modeling, intuitive user interfaces, and adaptive learning, the Defense Futures Simulator provides unparalleled capabilities for assessing defense strategy and budgeting tradeoffs. DFS is an enabling tool for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of defense strategy, budgeting dynamics, and the complexities involved in aligning strategic priorities with practical budgetary constraints. DFS brings defense analysis to a higher level.
For more information and to use the simulator, visit our site or contact us at defensefutures@aei.org.
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